Saturday, August 20, 2016

[Pokemon GO] Did I catch something rare? Pokemon rarity distribution and frequency counts

Everyone knows that a pidgey can be found everywhere while a charizard is not so common. But what's a more quantitative way to see how lucky you are when you see, say, an Abra or Haunter?

Here are the big data results (averaging all the places over the world, including coastal and non-coastal):

1. Overall, the rarity distribution is very uneven:
1.1 You catch a pidgey for every eight pokemons you come across
1.2 The top 9 abundant pokemons make up half of all the pokemons you see. In other words, half of your effort is actually dealing with the 9 most annoying pokemons you're tired of.

2. These are the detailed percentages:
     Based on their rarity, I divide them into 6 levels, with the most abundant group as Level 1 and the rarest group as Level 6. Below are the charts:




Level 6: those off the list (because our monitor cannot detect them frequent enough to estimate their probability)


Here is the full list with percentages of occurrence among all the pokemons. Ctrl + F / Command + F to find your favorite pokemon's score!


Pidgey 12.9%
Rattata 9.2%
Zubat 7.0%
Magikarp 5.5%
Weedle 4.8%
Spearow 4.3%
Ekans 2.78%
Psyduck 2.74%
Drowzee 2.61%
Caterpie 2.42%
Goldeen 2.13%
Paras 2.05%
Poliwag 2.04%
Eevee 2.03%
NidoranF 1.98%
Krabby 1.93%
Staryu 1.62%
NidoranM 1.61%
Venonat 1.55%
Meowth 1.27%
Mankey 1.19%
Tentacool 1.13%
Geodude 1.11%
Horsea 1.11%
Growlithe 1.09%
Sandshrew 1.06%
Clefairy 1.04%
Slowpoke 0.886%
Bellsprout 0.830%
Exeggcute 0.806%
Pinsir 0.797%
Oddish 0.778%
Pidgeotto 0.774%
Gastly 0.736%
Squirtle 0.731%
Magnemite 0.652%
Bulbasaur 0.642%
Cubone 0.595%
Rhyhorn 0.586%
Machop 0.567%
Shellder 0.525%
Golbat 0.516%
Voltorb 0.511%
Jigglypuff 0.474%
Doduo 0.464%
Diglett 0.445%
Abra 0.431%
Ponyta 0.389%
Jynx 0.384%
Dratini 0.366%
Kakuna 0.328%
Raticate 0.295%
Pikachu 0.286%
Tauros 0.281%
Charmander 0.277%
Seel 0.267%
Scyther 0.239%
Vulpix 0.230%
Koffing 0.192%
Metapod 0.183%
Tangela 0.178%
Omanyte 0.164%
Dodrio 0.155%
Poliwhirl 0.136%
Kabuto 0.131%
Arbok 0.122%
Onix 0.122%
Electabuzz 0.117%
Magmar 0.117%
Fearow 0.113%
Tentacruel 0.108%
Hypno 0.103%
Pidgeot 0.098%
Sandslash 0.094%
Golduck 0.089%
Nidorina 0.080%
Seaking 0.070%
Weepinbell 0.070%
Gloom 0.066%
Kingler 0.066%
Venomoth 0.066%
Graveler 0.061%
Nidorino 0.061%
Grimer 0.052%
Ivysaur 0.052%
Parasect 0.047%
Primeape 0.047%
Slowbro 0.047%
Seadra 0.038%
Arcanine 0.033%
Beedrill 0.033%
Butterfree 0.033%
Dragonair 0.033%
Kadabra 0.033%
Cloyster 0.028%
Haunter 0.028%
Hitmonlee 0.028%
Marowak 0.028%
Nidoking 0.023%
Persian 0.023%
Victreebel 0.023%
Wartortle 0.023%
Dewgong 0.019%
Electrode 0.019%
Flareon 0.019%
Hitmonchan 0.019%
Porygon 0.019%
Rhydon 0.019%
Snorlax 0.019%
Gengar 0.014%
Lickitung 0.014%
Magneton 0.014%
Mr.Mime 0.014%
Poliwrath 0.014%
Vaporeon 0.014%
Weezing 0.014%
Aerodactyl 0.009%
Charmeleon 0.009%
Clefable 0.009%
Dugtrio 0.009%
Golem 0.009%
Jolteon 0.009%
Lapras 0.009%
Rapidash 0.009%
Starmie 0.009%
Venusaur 0.009%
Wigglytuff 0.009%
Alakazam 0.005%
Exeggutor 0.005%
Farfetch'd 0.005%
Gyarados 0.005%
Ninetales 0.005%
Omastar 0.005%
Vileplume 0.005%

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